x402 Week Day 3: What 680 Agent Probes and $0.11 in Revenue Tell Us About the Agent Payment Layer

During x402 Week Day 3, a live agent-native marketplace recorded 680 agent probes but only 5 transactions ($0.11 revenue, 0.77% CVR), revealing a 'probe-then-fail' pattern where agents discover payment-gated APIs but lack tooling to complete payments. MPP mainnet launched on March 18 with zero native agent transactions so far, while x402 V2 introduced session authentication to reduce per-request payment friction. The 402Index discovery layer with MCP discoverability is pending, aiming to help agents automatically find payment-gated endpoints.