Predicting home electricity usage based on historical patterns in Home Assistant

The author describes a method for predicting home electricity usage in Home Assistant by analyzing historical consumption patterns. The approach averages past data from matching day-of-week and time-of-day slots over 8 weeks with recency weighting, blended with the last 2 days to capture emerging patterns. This prediction enables cost optimization for battery charging and water heating decisions, particularly useful under half-hourly variable electricity tariffs.