Kalshi Topples Polymarket: How Specialization Beat Diversity in Prediction Markets

Kalshi's surpassing of Polymarket represents a structural market realignment, not merely a monthly fluctuation—consecutive divergence signals a fundamental shift in trading patterns. The rise demonstrates that regulated platforms with specialized product focus (U.S. sports) can outpace established incumbents offering broader market diversity. This reshuffling underscores how regulatory clarity and product-market fit now drive dominance in prediction markets.