Missile Defense Is NP-Complete

The article analyzes missile defense as an NP-complete resource allocation problem, focusing on Single Shot Probability of Kill (SSPK) to quantify interceptor reliability. Using U.S. GMD data (56% SSPK per $75M interceptor), it shows how assigning multiple interceptors per warhead improves kill probability to ~96% with four interceptors, though this assumes independent failures. The author highlights that SSPK omits critical factors like detection, tracking, and decoy discrimination, introducing a common-mode failure probability that fundamentally limits defense effectiveness regardless of interceptor count.