IEA "美·이란 합의 유지되면 내년 원유시장 대규모 공급과잉"

The IEA projects that if the US-Iran ceasefire agreement holds, global crude oil supply could surge significantly by 2027, leading to substantial market oversupply despite current price declines. With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and potential sanctions relief, Iranian oil exports could fully resume, adding approximately 8 million barrels daily to global markets. This supply surge, combined with relatively modest demand growth of 2 million barrels daily, represents a critical shift in energy market dynamics where geopolitical resolution paradoxically threatens commodity price stability through supply abundance.