The War Betting Boom: How Polymarket Monetizes Global Conflict

Polymarket and similar online prediction markets have exploded in value, with users wagering hundreds of millions on geopolitical events including wars and military strikes. Beyond raising ethical questions about profiting from human suffering, the platform faces serious concerns about market manipulation and insider trading, where bettors may influence outcomes or how events are officially recorded. As regulators and critics increasingly scrutinize these markets, it remains unclear whether prediction markets genuinely predict the future or are becoming unregulated casinos with real-world consequences.