Post-Quantum Cryptography's Uncertain Future: A High-Stakes Wager on Algorithm Durability

This wager reveals a fundamental uncertainty within the cryptography community about which threat will arrive first: classical attacks on lattice-based post-quantum algorithms or practical quantum computers. As organizations worldwide begin transitioning to FIPS-standardized post-quantum cryptography, this high-stakes bet underscores the critical need to choose algorithms that will resist both existing and emerging attack vectors. The 2040 deadline reflects realistic timelines for quantum advancement and highlights the challenge of making irreversible cryptographic choices with incomplete information.